Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 3.605932 4.228198 4.917117 5.735182 6.678878 7.732070 8.995284
2025-10-05 2.783868 3.659071 4.732764 6.140948 7.932693 10.129288 13.018636
2025-10-12 2.176573 3.149467 4.449809 6.300943 8.851927 12.224557 16.998475
2025-10-19 1.777736 2.793478 4.253915 6.481748 9.763114 14.380299 21.320036
2025-10-26 1.453830 2.459280 4.001778 6.502443 10.405796 16.202183 25.374641
2025-11-02 1.166732 2.113467 3.655483 6.298659 10.647797 17.427427 28.661913
2025-11-09 0.928569 1.794512 3.286582 5.980695 10.635436 18.222691 31.336543
2025-11-16 0.776030 1.591729 3.071495 5.872742 10.930594 19.511605 34.910997
2025-11-23 0.660910 1.433852 2.905418 5.816610 11.291849 20.929603 38.831093
2025-11-30 0.603850 1.377638 2.915656 6.079566 12.248075 23.462795 44.929084
2025-12-07 0.529834 1.271357 2.810050 6.100680 12.748452 25.224794 49.819575
2025-12-14 0.464002 1.169449 2.695594 6.083851 13.166172 26.867283 54.642907
2025-12-21 0.406281 1.076601 2.589475 6.077719 13.623174 28.669886 60.036107
2025-12-28 0.395673 1.094275 2.728694 6.619560 15.281952 33.000454 70.805949
2026-01-04 0.362702 1.049821 2.719872 6.832037 16.268691 36.091298 79.426280
2026-01-11 0.333253 1.008298 2.710804 7.041661 17.273625 39.320934 88.649038
2026-01-18 0.297513 0.942048 2.630187 7.069136 17.870071 41.748531 96.432512
2026-01-25 0.254942 0.846870 2.459883 6.850536 17.866114 42.874781 101.539803
2026-02-01 0.213475 0.745010 2.253509 6.507175 17.516152 43.190602 104.894115
2026-02-08 0.186729 0.682038 2.141173 6.390569 17.704192 44.739751 111.152330
2026-02-15 0.165440 0.631506 2.054750 6.329898 18.023934 46.623869 118.353631
2026-02-22 0.157315 0.623400 2.090649 6.614437 19.272568 50.836660 131.384623
2026-03-01 0.142380 0.587901 2.037868 6.637288 19.828146 53.418660 140.757478